I am just about to watch the live TV debate, with six of the party leaders plus the Home Secretary Amber Rudd, standing in for Teresa May. Labour think they have hit gold, because Jeremy Corbyn has lifted his ratings with his broadcasts. On Twitter Labour supporters are gloating, this might be a tad premature, Tony Blair avoided all live TV debates, and still won? In fact he benefited from it, because he sidestepped major policy questions, which could have caused a major upset. 19:30 Wednesday 31st May 2017
There have been some slight glimmers of enlightenment amongst a mainly bickering seven poor players, strutting and fretting their hour upon the stage, sound and fury signifying little. I admit they have said more than nothing, but not much more.
GE2017 rolls on, the electioneering is now in full swing, and the surprise so far has been Jeremy Corbyn not making a complete hash of things. His gains have mainly been because, Teresa May has not capitalised enough on the Conservative Party’s strengths, and has been relying on the Tory image of wealth creators. Corbyn has not improved Labour’s persona, he has merely tapped into a fantasy idea that somehow endless n be found to fund Government. How it will play out by next Thursday and polling day remains to be seen.
At the moment there is a swing to Labour, it will take some serious effort not to lose the momentum. There have been some large gaffs made by senior Labour front benchers. Dianne Abbot is a regular car crash, and is unable to do simple sums, her only saving grace is that most of the people interviewing her, are equally useless at Maths and Economics so keep to the safe ground.
John McDonnell, Labour Shadow Chancellor, and the person responsible for producing Labour’s spending plans, has no idea about Economics, except that under labour they would have a magic money tree?
This has meant that Labour has been careful about what it says, and has kept to broad brush policies, this is good, because it allows the freedom of generalising, something the Conservatives as the sitting Government doesn’t have.
The Conservatives are stuck with #Brexit, which isn’t as high on peoples list of worries, as many Political pundits figured it would be. Changing policy over care for the elderly, just after the manifesto was published, made the Conservatives look amateur, and tarnished the impression of consistency. Also Teresa May’s status as a potential #Brexit negotiator, is being worn away on a daily basis, nothing serious at any one time, just little knocks and chips, but they are starting to tell in the polls.
The Lib Dems have put themselves at a disadvantage, by aiming their manifesto guns at staying in EU, and suggesting a second referendum on #Brexit, this is a policy out of touch with the majority of voters on the streets. Most people in UK accept the result of a vote, even when they voted the opposite to the result, it’s called Democracy, and the Lib Dems are ignoring this at their peril.
The Lib Dems do have a manifesto built on strong Economic foundations, and will gain quite a lot of votes in the areas where the #Remain vote was strong. It will get those votes, because it has economic policies that make sense, and play to its strengths. Also, because when push comes to shove, the voter in some of these constituencies, will vote tactically. When all said and done, if you voted #Remain, then voting for a party that will at least fight your corner, and looks on paper to be able to handle the economy without nay major disasters built in, is worth a punt against either the Conservatives, who are hell bent on getting us out, or Labour who are hell bent on saying one thing and doing another?
The next week will of course be crucial, the final days of candidates out rallying support on the stump, always is. The main gains and losses will result from what people ~perceive~ to be leadership, gained from following the various media.
At the current time, Ms. May looks has stumbled, now is the time for any of her opponents to grab the initiative. It is worth noting Nicola Sturgeon the SNP leader was also absent from the TV debate, in her case she had too much to lose by appearing, and although she has one game to play, namely Scottish Independence, she is an astute political animal, her absence was part of playing this game.
Jeremy Corbyn has some decent advisors, whether he is up to taking their advice, we shall see, Tim Farron suffers from a lack of presence, it is not something that is gained in a couple of weeks, in fact some people just don’t have it, but he could gain just by being a little vague on some topics, and not pin himself down.
At the beginning of the campaign, the Conservatives, in the form of PM Teresa may said she thought it unlikely that the outcome would be what the polls were suggesting at the time and that it would be a closer race than many were thinking. She is being proved correct, the Conservatives will romp home to victory, but with only a slightly increased margin. Jeremy Corbyn will hang on as leader because he will not lose by the numbers first predicted, and the Lib Dems will limp in with an increase in MP’s but not the breakthrough it should be.
We now await June 8th for the outcome.