pre-referendum-blogs

Pre Referendum Blogs

REFERENDUM

Thurs 2nd June 2016

In Britain the two warring factions currently arguing over whether it will be better to suffer the slings and arrows of European fortunes, or find the way to dusty death via Brexit. This is how the referendum is currently playing out, Prime Minister David Cameron’s problem is, that he is sounding more like Macbeth, ‘it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, but signifying nothing’.

Iain Harris Car salesman selling car PM Cameron
Car seller Iain Harris selling a Nissan Micra to Prime Minister David Cameron for use by his wife Samantha

The idea of a European Union, should have died before, for Democracy’s sake, or be made truly Democratic.

Cameron has brought on the big guns, one in the shape of Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England, who pulled off a neat trick, of being completely truthful about a referendum result, but he could afford to be, he only told half the story. He pointed out that in the case of a referendum vote for Brexit the impact on the financial sector would be dependent on the relationship negotiated by the UK. Well of course it would, what he didn’t say was, what the referendum impact on the Financial sector would be, in the event of staying within the undemocratic European fiasco. Britain along with Germany has plugged large gaps in the European dictatorships financial fiasco, and it comes out of my taxation.

Financial Times Money section
Share prices will go up as well as down?

representation for that taxation.

Can I have representation for that taxation. I am currently in the process of claiming tax withholding status, with the US Inland Revenue Service, when I have got it, I shall then have any tax paid in UK, not in USA, this is in keeping with the idea, that if one pays taxes, one should have a say in how those taxes are spent. This is not the case with Brussels, they spend my money then tell my elected representative to vote for it or against, if the majority is against, it is returned until the Brussels Parliament do vote it in, that is NOT representation for my taxation.

The despicable excuse for a President, Jean Claude Junkers, has intervened in UK politics, despite not having been voted for by any of the public, I have not even had the chance to say I voted against him. In the past he has re-iterated the lie, that it is the Common Market that has kept the peace in Europe, since 1945, what a complete load of balderdash.

NATO, has guaranteed peace in Europe, and that isn’t on the referendum agenda.

Democracy within the European thingybob

In all the mud slinging, from both sides, another point, aside from a lack of Democracy within the European thingybob, is that a Brexit would do little good to any trade, certainly in the short term, it would be bad, really wherever has that idea come from.

USS Boxer & Harrier Jump Jets
A stunning view of British Harrier Jump jets on USS Boxer, NATO brought peace. Copyright Wired

So let’s pretend it is 24th June 2016, we wake up and the UK has the results.

Well for starters it is a Friday, so whatever happens in the London Stock Exchange, will stop by late afternoon for the weekend. But my prediction will be, that the All Share, will rise and fall in equal measure depending on the companies’ relationship with Europe.

Haven’t I forgotten something, I hear the cry, which referendum result, Brexit or Remain?

Either.

both sides will claim a victor

The stock markets merely reflect, what share holders perceive the profits or losses will do, as a result of outside market forces. If we remain some companies will benefit, if we Brexit, other companies will benefit, both sides will claim a victory.

Meanwhile Sterling may well fall, if we vote Brexit, which will boost jobs and exports, so undermine the Remain campaigns argument that leaving will be bad for the economy, it will start booming, oops, not what Remainers wish to hear.

And the opposite side of the coin, is Sterling may well rise, if we vote remain, which will be bad for jobs and exports, again having the opposite effect on what all the Financial pundits are predicting, but then when was Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, OECD, IMF, ever correct, when making sweeping statements related to the Economy, they aren’t, ever.

Adam Smith £20 Bank Note
Reverse of £20 Adam Smith British Bank note, with strategically positioned pound coins, to avoid breaking the Law, on counterfeit infringement.

One of the problems Britain has, is that the Euro, is too low, this is because the PIIGS countries are depressing the price of the Euro, which means Germany has had an easy ride for the last ten years, or more, it could export, at what to the German economy, was favourable terms. This has given German companies a 20% to perhaps as much as 50% bonus margin, in other words if a German company was working on 12% to 18% net profit, this is boosted to 14.4% or even 27%, BMW anyone?

Here we come back to Europe’s lack of Democratic process, the bankers of Frankfurt decide the Economy of Greeks, not the elected representatives of Greeks domestic, Hellenic Parliament, this is just one prominent example, all the PIIGS countries are merely players, they have their exits and entrances, and in their time play many parts, and at the moment those parts, are doled out by faceless unelected bankers, exactly As they like it.

my new play, ~As you Macbeth it~

No matter how much they doth protest otherwise, to a greater or lesser extent, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain are marionettes, to the puppeteers pulling the strings in Frankfurt, and Franco Draghi the head of the European Central Bank has his offices in the same place, Frankfurt, but is merely a walk on part, Le Beau in As you Like it, full of News, perhaps on a way to dusty death, my new play, ~As you Macbeth it~

In the short term the Referendum will not make, one jot or tittle, to the Economy if you are buying shares, my tip is buy in these last few weeks leading up to the Referendum, then sell or keep at your leisure. One cautionary warning here, I am generally poor at stock picking, but on this occasion I am fairly certain there will risers, especially those not closely associated with Europe, if only because markets don’t like uncertainty, and they certainly don’t like Politicians telling them how they should think.

Which puts Sterling in the spotlight, there were jitters sending Sterling down when a poll suggested a shift to Brexit, which is just what happened on Golden Wednesday 16th September 1992, erroneously called Black Wednesday by Politicians and media pundits, showing what a fat lot they know. It started a rise in exports and got Britain’s economy moving up and expanding out, for the following 15 years. This would also hit the Euro, as it would rise, hitting German exports, Jaguar anyone?

Jaguar XK120 in red
Jaguar from the 1950s, neat.

Back in March this year a team called the Spinelli group, based in Frankfurt, can you spot a theme here? Produced a report, so that its measures will be in time for the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, it outlines the ideas of a Eurozone economic policy. The idea is that the Eurozone and Euro in general need an overhaul, it has one sentence at the end, which suggests the Council of the EU should relinquish its powers to the EU Commission.

Of course it would, this would mean even less Democracy than the 0.1% Brussels already lacks.

Fantasists the lot of them.

Unfortunately very influential unelected fantasists.

 

Mud slinging

Thurs 16th June 2016

Smiley Bales John Ashtone
Smiles make people happy, more than any promises made by a Politician

The referendum is now producing more heat than light, with both sides indulging in some old fashioned mud slinging.

The Brexiters are making the most noise, and this is in my view skewering the polls. I have been trying to find out what the younger generation are going to vote, with little success, they appear to be in the remainers camp, but only just. I was dropping two under 30s off, the other night after work. It had just turned Midnight and there was no way I was going to let Gunta, a Latvian girl, walk home, and then Scott lived a bit further, so they piled into my clapped out old Suzuki Swift.

£1400 new and around 50 mpg average

I bought my Suzuki Swift six years ago, X reg 1 Litre engine, three door, with 32k on the clock, it has now done 153k, without a missed beat. It failed the last MOT with £400 of repairs needed, mainly suspension due to the potholes in our roads. So I had the work done and I’m now looking to upgrade, otherwise it had run supremely well, just servicing, tyres and windscreen wipers replaced. £1400 new and around 50 mpg average, it was a brilliant purchase, helping me reduce my debts quicker, and at just over £300 per year I think that is good for any car.

Suzuki Swift 1 litre UK 1998
My Suzuki Swift 1 Litre, that did 66MPG on 1 run, all motorway, but still managed 50 mpg around town.

I have just bought a replacement, a Suzuki SX4, eight years old 54k on the clock, and should be good for four to six years. I went for the SX4 purely for ‘cool’ but it did fill other needs, like having five doors, so the Ancient Parent (AP) can get in and out easily when carrying my two hips replacement Aunt. It also has a much larger carrying capacity, so future plans taken into account.

There is a pile of books on the back seat, of the Swift so some of these had to be moved so that Scott could get in. You know the usual library anyone might have in the back of their car, Economics by Samuelson, 50 Mathematical Ideas, HTML in 24 hours, Herodotus the Histories, general titles one pulls off the bookshelf at home!

I quizzed Scott on the referendum, who promptly told me he doesn’t vote, because there is no point, he was immediately admonished. Not that it would make any difference, he is of the ~if voting changed anything, they would abolish it school,~ a trite quote that doesn’t bare scrutiny.

My conversation with Gunta was equally disappointing, she had said yes she was able to Vote, and that was it, she wouldn’t comment either way, even though I was jovial and made it clear I was just enquiring. Now here’s the thing, through her broken English did she misunderstand my question, and think I was asking if she was able to vote in Latvia, unlikely as I had already made it clear I was on about the upcoming Referendum, or was she embarrassed. This could be for the odd reason she was going to vote out, personally I think it unlikely. But it is just possible, or perhaps I’m interpreting wrongly, her refusal to comment.

Latvian Flag 2016
I wasn’t aware of just what constituted the Latvian Flag?
I do now.

I get the distinct impression the swing will be clear cut, 55/45 at least, but I would still not say which way, from the pollsters point of view these are indeed strange times we live in.

If one looks and listens to the media, the Brexiters are definitely making the most noise, but this is kept in check somewhat, from the high pitched shrill of the Remainers arguments. Both sides are exaggerating, and making out they are informing you with facts about the referendum, when in fact neither side are, and neither side actually knows for certain. Hence why George Soros has come out of retirement to make some do$h. Quite right too, Soros has a knack of spotting an inconsistency, and here the inconsistency is the price of the Pound £.

£ sterling will rise, so exporters will be hit

This is a little bit easier to explain, if Britain votes to remain in the European Union, £ sterling will rise, so exporters will be hit, imports will be cheaper, negative inflation could tip to deflation, unemployment will rise. So the companies who are affected positively, by these types of changes, are worth buying, and sell short on those adversely affected, by these factors.

The other side of the coin is, should Britain exit the EU, then £ sterling will fall, dramatically, this will push exports up, reduce imports, and lead to a modicum of inflation. Employment is unlikely to be largely affected, one way or t’other, well not initially, it would then depend on the new Government.
Cameron might cling on if there is a large remain vote, but he will be swept away in a brexit result, and Gideon Osborne will go with him.

Certainly the business world hasn’t covered itself in glory, with the likes of Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan etc etc. ignoring any information gained when Britain exited the ERM back on Golden Wednesday 16th September 1992.

They all seem to ignore the fact that when the pound fell sharply, British business went on a long steady growth trajectory for the next 20 years. The main problem is that Germany had the advantage that the PIIGS Countries, (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) all had catastrophic economies, caused by the high Euro. But here is the catch, for Germany it was always low, if the Euro was linked to the old Day Mark, it would be somewhere around, £1.08 1.12 per Euro not 80p, which would make it around $1.60 per 1 Euro, not the current $1.12.

HSBC Park Row Leeds UK
Main entrance to HSBC Park Row Leeds, when the Leeds Artist Atkinson Grimshaw painted Park Row, this would have been the Midland Bank.

In other words, and to help explain to those who struggle with currency conversion, if a German manufacturer were selling an item into America, the American would have to sell the products at $1.60 not $1.12 as at present, a big difference. Meanwhile if the Euro were at that suggested level for Germany with regards to UK, a decent BMW 3 Series currently somewhere around £33,000 would be in the region of £46,200. The difference would be the price of a British built Honda Jazz?

The truth of the matter is, that no one knows for certain what would happen in the case of a Brexit, although I can say one thing, George Osborne would NOT be presenting an emergency budget. He would be gone along with Cameron, and then there would be a new direction in British Politics.

or Osborne is stupid, no we’ll stick with arrogant

George Osborne’s arrogance that he would be able to present a budget, should the Brexit camp win, beggars belief. Either that or Osborne is stupid, no we’ll stick with arrogant. If the Remain camp win, the man will be unbearable, although with this foot in mouth statement, he will rue the day he opened his gob without thinking. If Brexit win, he will be history within 24 hours, and his complete balderdash, about the Budget will not be in the history books except as a side note on Hubris?

Whatever the outcome, Britain will survive, and under the correct leadership flourish.

If we do vote to remain, then John-Claude Junker’s and his Mussolini style partners in crime, should be given their marching orders, but then that would require someone with more foresight than Cameron, a man with so little bargaining skills, he paid full whack for a Nissan Micra for his wife?

Iain Harris Car salesman selling car PM Cameron
Car seller Iain Harris selling a Nissan Micra to Prime Minister David Cameron for use by his wife Samantha

The chap I bought my car from was advertising at £2,600, about £400 below list price, the seller wouldn’t budge from £2,400, but settled on £2,375 when he’d counted the Adam Smith’s out, lol. An old trick, but it was worth half a tank of petrol. I wouldn’t have expected Cameron to turn up with the readies, it would have smelt of shady dealing to the hypocritical press, but he should have been able to get £150 deducted, if only for the advertising that Ian Harris the Oxfordshire car dealer received from the sale.

Cameron is not a bad Prime Minister, but he is five out of ten, and to deal with Europe we need seven upwards.

Please note I wrote these blogs when I was undecided, I made my final decision to leave in the polling booth.

I did so purely on the fact I realised the EU was un-democratic, in that it does not represent the will of the people.

17.2 Million people deliberated.

It is not for the MPs to vote against this decision.